Corona pandemic ǀ And there it is again, the question of guilt — Friday

Everything will be better next year. There will be a vaccine next year. And: no more chaos next year. This and similar were the messages last autumn, when the incidence figures rose rapidly again after the holiday season, the intensive care beds became scarce and the long deaths in the homes began. Now the long-awaited substance is here, two thirds of the adult population have been vaccinated, a relatively relaxed summer is behind us. And yet the number of infections exceeds that of autumn 2020, people are dying again in the homes, and there are already eleven residents in a senior citizens’ residence on Lake Werbellinsee in Brandenburg. The culprits were soon found there, namely the 50 percent of employees who had not been vaccinated.

And there it is again, the debt debate. While unvaccinated people could still point to a lack of vaccines and chaos in the vaccination centers well into the summer, they now need explanations - like Sahra Wagenknecht recently on Anne Will's talk show, when she was publicly talked to the wall because she has not yet been vaccinated. No, there is not (yet) a vaccination requirement in Germany, but the understanding for those who avoid the needle has disappeared with the summer sun. Where appeals were still being made months ago, threats are now being set up more and more clearly. Almost half of the federal states have already begun to introduce the 2G rule “as a contribution to normalizing life”, according to which only those who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered are allowed to take part in certain events or visit facilities without a mask and distance.

Acting Minister of the Chancellery Helge Braun (CDU) even considers 2G to be the "logical step up" to prevent the medical system from being overloaded. Large companies like Bayer are starting to separate their canteens: for those who meet the gold standard and the rest, in "close consultation with the works councils", it says. It remains unclear how the "two-class canteen" (picture) can actually be reconciled with the fact that employers are not - yet - allowed to ask about the vaccination status of the employees. But anyway, the demands of the trade associations for vaccination information are getting louder. Unvaccinated employees could soon be required to be tested, as in Austria and Italy, before they pass through the company door – at their own expense. Otherwise they have to stay at home without the right to continued payment of wages.

Checks in the supermarket?

Hesse is going even further by giving food retailers a free hand. The administrative court in Frankfurt had decided that, with regard to 2G, retail was to be equated with commercial industry. So there could soon be supermarkets where people are checked at the front door to see who has been vaccinated or who has recovered. The big discounters spoke out against it some time ago, but for how long? Business lawyer Benjamin Onnis has just explained in Focus that the 2G model could be attractive for many retailers because it would eliminate mask and distance rules and hygiene obligations. However, staff may be forced to get vaccinated if they don't want to risk being fired. However, whether the 2G rule will help contain the pandemic is controversial. Apart from constitutional concerns, which the scientific service of the Bundestag formulated in a report in September, critics warn that vaccinated people will soon be “rushing through the population like stealth bombers”, according to the drastic formulation of the virologist Alexander Kekulé. His research colleague Hendrik Streeck also assesses the restrictions critically and refers to the increased vaccination breakthroughs among adults.

"Vaccine breakthrough" is one of this fall's fight vocabulary. Because what the vaccine once promised, namely long-term immunity, has not come true. The effectiveness of the vaccine decreases continuously after it is given, more so in older people than in younger people. A study recently published in the journal The Lancet shows that a significant reduction in efficacy can already be expected two to three months after vaccination.

The Robert Koch Institute has registered 117,763 vaccination breakthroughs in Germany since February, as a result of which 1,076 people, including 782 over 80-year-olds, have died. In most cases, the course of the disease is considerably milder in vaccinated people, with a hospitalization rate of one quarter compared to three quarters in the unvaccinated. That's why vaccination is always better than waiting for a serious infection. But even immunized infected people carry a viral load that they can spread, especially when moving under 2G conditions. Only rapid tests would then be an effective means of preventing the spread of the delta variant of the virus in particular, which is prevalent in Germany. In view of this fact, the call for booster vaccinations is becoming louder, not only for those over 70 and those at risk, for whom this recommendation already applies. But here, too, opinions differ. Many virologists still consider 18 to 69 year olds to be sufficiently protected and point to the unfair distribution of vaccines worldwide. But there are also experts like the Berlin vaccine researcher Leif Sander, who expect booster vaccinations to have a dampening effect.

Now it's boosted

After Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU) in October, with his request to vaccinate all adults a third time, caused a lot of irritation about the "stoking up false expectations", the pressure is now increasing on the Standing Vaccination Commission, which advocates prioritizing the 15 million elderly and sick to boost. At the same time, Spahn called on the federal states to reopen the vaccination centers, which, as Lower Saxony's Social Minister Daniela Behrens (SPD) notes, are little "amused" about these "completely uncoordinated proposals". Her party colleague in the federal government, the possible future Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD), on the other hand, supports Spahn.

"Sorted approach" in winter, as requested by the commission of experts at the beginning of the week, looks different. Politicians act according to “gut evidence”, according to GKV boss Andreas Gassen, which will particularly annoy Lauterbach, who is well versed in epidemiology. Apparently, politicians are afraid that the clinics could be overwhelmed again if the hospitalization rate continues to rise and the patience and commitment of the nursing staff are finally exhausted, as the clinic strike in Berlin demonstrated. The imminent shortage of intensive care beds that is currently being rumored everywhere is primarily a staff shortage fueled by the pandemic overload. As research by Bavarian Radio shows, the bed reserve was never exceeded, but the nursing staff's reserve of strength was certainly exceeded. They will now be the first to be targeted in the newly flaring up vaccination debate. This fits into a narrative that is solely about individualized responsibility.